Benjamin Tal on current recession
The current recession will be characterized by de-leveraging by households and corporations. Household credit will be little changed in the course of the coming 12 months, and for the first time in many years the very important debt-to-income ratio will stop rising.
The most notable softening will be seen in the mortgage market. After rising by 12-13% in 2008, look for mortgage outstanding to rise by only 2-3% in 2009. On average, house prices will fall by roughly 10% in 2009 versus the average value in 2008.
Yes, we are in a recession. But like previous recessions this one will also end, and the sun will shine
again. - Weekly Market Insight, January 16, 2009, Benjamin Tal, Senior Economist